Risk factors for recurrent common bile duct stones: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Common bile duct stones (CBDS) have a reported recurrence rate of 4%-24% after stone extraction. The most commonly applied stone extraction method is endoscopic cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify all available risk factors for recurrent CBDS following stone retraction.A literature search of studies with case-control design was performed to identify potential risk factors for recurrent CBDS. The impact of different risk factors on stone recurrence was analyzed. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs and heterogeneity were calculated. Identified risk factors were graded as 'strong,' 'moderate,' or 'weak' after quality assessment.A total of 46 studies discussing stone recurrence following ERCP treatment were included. CBD diameter≥1.5 cm, sharp CBD angulation, multiple ERCP sessions, postoperative pneumobilia, history of CBD incision, and biliary stent placement were identified as strong risk factors; larger CBD diameter, periampullary diverticulum, mechanical lithotripsy, and history of cholecystectomy were identified as moderate. Other weak risk factors were also listed.In this comprehensive study, we identified 14 risk/protective factors for recurrent CBDS following ERCP. Pooled odds ratios were calculated and evaluated the quality of evidence. These findings may shed light on the assessment and management of CBDS.