Current trends and projections for potential acupuncture needs globally and in China: evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Abstract Background Acupuncture plays a vital role in managing musculoskeletal, neurological, gastrointestinal, and cancer-related conditions and significantly improves individual quality of life and societal well-being. However, despite its demonstrated benefits, it remains under-prioritized and under-resourced globally and in China. Thus, the present study aimed to explore global and Chinese data on the number of patients who would benefit from acupuncture at least once during the course of their illness. Methods To estimate the potential need for acupuncture, data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database were used to calculate the prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) for eight disease categories (including 20 health conditions) identified as amenable to acupuncture, both globally and in China, thereby assessing current needs. Decomposition analysis was conducted to identify the key contributors to changes in acupuncture needs, and a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was applied to forecast future needs. Results In 2021, an estimated 6.50 (95% uncertainty intervals [UI] 5.64 to 7.48) billion individuals globally had conditions that would benefit from acupuncture, contributing to 306.47 (95% UI 185.17 to 469.90) million YLDs—representing increases of 70.65% and 79.83% from 1990, with EAPCs of 0.02 and − 0.04, respectively. In China, 1.06 (95% UI 0.91 to 1.24) billion individuals had such conditions, accounting for 55.68 (95% UI 33.80 to 85.13) million YLDs—up 55.63% and 65.13% from 1990, with EAPCs of 0.10 and − 0.13, respectively. Globally and in China, neurological disorders represent the greatest need for acupuncture, with tension-type headaches being the leading specific condition. Decomposition analyses revealed an increased need for acupuncture, with a positive contribution from population growth and aging, both worldwide and in China. By 2045, the number of individuals projected to require acupuncture services is expected to reach 9.68 billion globally and 1.35 billion in China, contributing to 657.81 million and 80.76 million YLDs, respectively. Conclusions Global and Chinese needs for acupuncture have risen markedly since 1990 and are projected to continue increasing through 2045. This challenges the traditional perception that acupuncture serves only a small portion of the population. Thus, this study emphasizes the urgent need to integrate acupuncture into modern primary healthcare systems to meet the increasing health needs of an aging and growing populations.