Research on the Effect Evaluation and the Time-series Evolution of Public Culture's Internet Communication under the Background of New Media: Taking the Information Dissemination of Red Tourism Culture as an Example

The emergence of new online media has promoted the communication of public cultural information, and systematic evaluation of its communication effectiveness has become an increasingly important research topic. This article aims to enrich and improve the evaluation index system for the effect of public cultural network communication and provide suggestions for improving the effect of public cultural network communication and constructing a good communication ecology. Based on factors such as propagation force, guiding force, and influence, this article crawled 78,140 pieces multi-source heterogeneous of nine Altmetrics index data from Sina Weibo, Baidu, Sogou, Bilibili, and other platforms, constructs the evaluation index system of public culture network communication effect under the background of new media, and quantifies and analyzes the network communication effect of red public culture in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. On this basis, the time-series evolution of communication effect is modeled and analyzed, and the law of communication is found systematically. The study finds that the communicating effect of red public culture varies significantly and has a large room for improvement overall; the communicating effect improves steadily with seasonal changes, and the communicating effect in summer and autumn is better than the other two seasons; the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (1,1,1) model can better present the dynamic changes of cultural communication system after the first-order difference of the time-series data. This article innovatively embeds the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei red culture in the public cultural construction system and research system, and a comprehensive communication effect evaluation index system is constructed to measure the effect of public culture network communication under the background of new media and analyze its dynamic evolution.