Health economic loss measurement and risk assessment of new cases of coal worker’s pneumoconiosis in China

Abstract Background The annual economic losses arising from new cases of coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP) in China are vast. Methods Based on China's official statistics for the period 2007–2016, this article paper quantifies the health economic loss (i.e., health loss, for short) caused by new cases of CWP using the stepwise model and human capital method. The Bootstrap Information Diffusion Comprehensive Model was utilized to analyze the mean probability, exceeding probability, confidence interval, and expectation level of health loss at different risk levels. Results (1) The health loss caused by new cases of CWP in China from 2007 to 2016 amounts to approximately 0.579–4.46 billion yuan per year, while the estimated average annual economic loss is about 3 billion yuan, and the average proportion of GDP is around 0.045‰. (2) Both the health loss and the proportion of GDP show a rising volatile trend. Further research examining the risk of health loss revealed that there is a 51.7% probability that the health loss caused by new cases of CWP in China will exceed 3 billion in the future, and that there is approximately an 18.36% probability that health losses will exceed 5 billion. (3) The health losses resulting from new cases of CWP in China will increase further over the next five years. It is conservatively estimated that the health loss arising from new cases of CWP in 2022 will reach 6.762 billion yuan. Conclusion The warning mechanism should also be established to manage the continuous increase in health losses.