Dynamic Change of Virtual Water and Its Prediction in Linfen City of Shanxi Province

Using the actual residential consumer goods consumption,the paper calculates the virtual water consumption in Linfen City of Shanxi Province and analyzes the spatial-temporal changes of variation of water consumption during 1985—2010.And then regression model was used to predict the virtual water consumption in 2015—2020.The results showed that the virtual water consumption reached at 6.39×109 m3 in total and 1 479.27m3 per capita in 2010.The virtual water consumption showed a increasing trend in the past 26 years with the exception happen in Puxian and Daning County where the average annual growth of virtual water consumption is negative.As for the spatial distribution,the virtual water consumption grew less in mountainous areas than that in flat areas.Using GM(1,1)model the population and then the virtual water consumption of Linfen City in 2015and 2020was predicted.Comparing with data in 2010,the virtual water consumption would increase in Linfen,Huozhou and Xixian County while keep basically flat in Guxian County and decrease in the other counties.