LightGBM: an efficient and accurate method for predicting pregnancy diseases

As machine learning is becoming the fashion in disease prediction while no prediction model has performed very efficiently and accurately on predicting pregnancy diseases up to now, it’s necessary to compare several common machine learning methods’ performance on pregnancy diseases prediction and select out the best one. The data of two common pregnancy complications, pregnancy-induced hypertension (PIH) and Intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy (ICP), based on various maternal characteristics measured in patients’ routine blood examination in 10–19 weeks of gestation are considered to be suitable to be learned. This is a retrospective study of 320 healthy pregnancies in 10–19 weeks, with 149 patients who subsequently developed PIH and 250 patients who subsequently developed ICP. Nine machine learning methods were used to predict PIH and ICP and their performance was compared via 8 evaluation indexes. Finally, the light Gradient Boosting Machine (lightGBM) is considered to be the best method to predict gestational diseases.Impact statementWhat is already known on this subject? As a kind of commonly used method in disease prediction, machine learning could be applied to clinical data for developing robust risk models and many achievements have been made. Also, machine learning can be used to predict pregnancy diseases. Although some machine learning methods have been used for screening gestational diseases, methods based on simple theories, such as logistic regression and decision tree, are frequently used. They don’t always have a very satisfactory prediction results. Besides, only a few types of pregnancy diseases can be predicted.What do the results of this study add? LightGBM has the best prediction results of PIH and ICP among 9 machine learning methods in this study. It can predict PIH (AUC = 81.72%) with a sensitivity of 70.59%, and ICP (AUC = 95.91%) with a sensitivity of 97.91%.What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? A new model has been developed for effective first-trimester screening for two common pregnancy diseases, PIH and ICP. This lightGBM model can be used in relative hospitals and population of the research, and provide references for doctors' diagnosis and treatment of pregnant women. In further research, the predicted effect of lightGBM on daily practice and other pregnancy diseases such as pregnancy diabetes, will be verified.