The triglyceride glucose index trajectory is associated with hypertension: a retrospective longitudinal cohort study

Abstract Background Previous studies have found that the triglyceride glucose index (TyG index) trajectories are associated with cardiovascular diseases. However, the association between the patterns of TyG index trajectories and risk for hypertension has not been investigated. In a longitudinal general population, we aimed to identify distinct TyG index trajectories over 12 years and describe their association with incidence of hypertension. Method Of the 15,056 adults retrospectively recruited from the Physical Examination Center of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University in northeast of China from 2011 to 2022. TyG index was calculated as ln (fasting TG [mg/dL] × FPG [mg/dL]/2) and the TyG index trajectories were developed using group-based trajectory modelling. Cox regression analysis was accomplished to assess the association between TyG index and incidence of hypertension. Results The median age of the population was 38 years, and 7352 (48.83%) of the participants were men. Three distinct TyG index trajectories were identified: “low increasing” (N = 7241), “moderate increasing” (N = 6448), and “high stable” (N = 1367). Using “low increasing” trajectory as a reference, “moderate increasing” and “high stable” trajectory were associated with increased risk of hypertension (HR = 2.45; 95% CI 2.25–2.67 and HR = 3.88; 95% CI 3.48–4.33). After adjusting for baseline sex, age, diabetes, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, BMI, cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, low density lipoprotein cholesterol, blood glucose, triglyceride, urea, uric acid, and glomerular filtration rate, the HR were slightly attenuate in “moderate increasing” and “high stable” trajectories to 1.38 (95% CI 1.23–1.54) and 1.69 (95% CI 1.40–2.02) respectively. Meanwhile, similar results were observed in multiple sensitivity analyses. The HR of the “moderate increasing” and “high stable” trajectory groups were 2.63 (95% CI 2.30–3.00) and 4.66 (95% CI 3.66–5.93) in female, and 1.66 (95% CI 1.48–1.86) and 2.33 (95% CI 2.04–2.66) in male. Conclusions Elevated TyG index at baseline and long-term TyG index trajectories were associated with the risk of hypertension. Early identification of increasing TyG index could provide insights for preventing hypertension later in life.