Identifying intrinsic drivers to changes in riparian ecosystem services by using PSR framework: A case study of the Grand Canal in Jiangsu, China

The interaction between water and land greatly affected the change of the riparian ecosystem service value (ESV) under the background of rapid regional development . In order to analyze the change of ESV, this study combined the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) and the P (pressure)-S (state)-R (response) framework to exploring its driving factors based on the ESV accounting method improved by the catastrophe progression. Taking the riparian zone of the Grand Canal within Jiangsu Province as the study case, this study measured ESV changes and analyzed their driving forces to evaluate the sustainable level of the riparian zone since the construction of the eastern route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (ERSNWDP) from 2002 to 2018. The results indicate that: (1) The ecosystem structure of the riparian zone changed significantly during the study period as the total ESV showed a V-shaped trend which increased from 782,339,400 yuan to 827,822,600 yuan generally, indicating that the sustainable capacity of riparian zone ecosystem decreased first and then increased. (2) The pressure and response of the riparian zone ecosystem in the study area have a good synergistic effect, that is, along with the bearing pressure, the response can also make the riparian ecosystem have a good supporting effect. (3) The economic factors are the greatest and stablest influence on the ESV, which means that the economic factors play a dominant role in the riparian ESV. The overall impact of population factors and urbanization on ESV is slight and positive. The purpose of this study is to help stakeholders assess the ecological sustainability level and development trend of riparian zone, provide an analytical framework to discover the drivers of ESV changes and their relationships to guide the regional planning formulation and implementation.