动力学(音乐)
基本再生数
分离(微生物学)
病毒学
传递率(结构动力学)
拉伤
病毒
作者
Miriam A Nuno,Zhilan Feng,Maia Martcheva,Carlos Castillo-Chavez
出处
期刊:Siam Journal on Applied Mathematics
[Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics]
日期:2005-01-01
卷期号:65 (3): 964-982
被引量:104
标识
DOI:10.1137/s003613990343882x
摘要
The time evolution of the influenza A virus is linked to a nonfixed landscape driven by interactions between hosts and competing influenza strains. Herd-immunity, cross-immunity, and age-structure are among the factors that have been shown to support strain coexistence and/or disease oscillations. In this study, we put two influenza strains under various levels of (interference) competition. We establish that cross-immunity and host isolation lead to periodic epidemic outbreaks (sustained oscillations) in this multistrain system. We compute the isolation reproductive number for each strain ($\Re_i$) independently, as well as for the full system ($\Re_q$), and show that when $\Re_q < 1$, both strains die out. Subthreshold coexistence driven by cross-immunity is possible even when the isolation reproductive number of one strain is below 1. Conditions that guarantee a winning type or coexistence are established in general. Oscillatory coexistence is established via Hopf bifurcation theory and confirmed via n...
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