Climate Change in Turkmenistan

More than 80% of Turkmenistan is desert; thus, key environmental issues are associated with redistribution and supply of limited water resources. Turkmenistan is projected to become warmer and probably drier during the coming decades. Aridity is expected to increase in all republics of Central Asia, but especially in the western part of Turkmenistan. The temperature increases are predicted to be particularly high in summer and fall but lower in winter. Especially significant decrease in precipitation is predicted in summer and fall, while a modest increase or no change in precipitation is expected in winter months. These seasonal climatic shifts are likely to have profound implications for agriculture, particularly in western Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, where frequent droughts are likely to negatively affect cotton, cereals, and forage production, increase already extremely high water demands for irrigation, exacerbate the already existing water crisis, and accelerate human-induced desertification. The Amudarya is the most water-bearing river in Central Asia; its endorheic drainage basin includes the territories of Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Fed by seasonal snowmelt of snowpacks and glaciers, the flow of the Amudarya may increase due to intensified melting of the glaciers and snowpacks under a warming climate, which could further contribute to expansion of agricultural land use at the expense of converted natural areas. During the last few decades, Turkmenistan has experienced widespread changes in land cover and land use following the socioeconomic and institutional changes in the wake of the disintegration of the USSR in 1991, and subsequently followed by a decade of drought and steadily increasing temperatures. These changes in the vegetated landscape are sufficiently broad to be detectable from orbital sensors at multiple scales.