A risk predictive model for coronary perforation in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention – APOLLO-XI score

Abstract Background Coronary perforation (CP) is a rare but potentially life-threatening complication of percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Although several variables are associated with the risk of coronary perforation, a cumulative risk predictive model has not been established yet. Purpose To assess an incidence, risk factors and to develop risk predictive model for coronary perforation following PCI. Methods A single center, retrospective study of patients who underwent PCI from March 2010 to December 2019. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of CP. A risk predictive model was constructed with incremental weights attributed to each component variable according to their beta coefficients. Results 10,671 PCI procedures were enrolled. The incidence of CP was 0.94%. Adverse in-hospital outcomes were significant higher in CP group, including death (odds ratio [OR]: 3.58), mechanical circulatory support; including IABP and ECMO (OR: 3.79) and urgent revascularization (OR: 7.35). Multivariable analysis identified seven independent risk factors for CP, which were age (OR: 1.02), insulin-treated diabetes (OR: 2.50), prior CABG (OR: 2.03), hydrophilic guidewire (OR: 1.62), rotational atherectomy (OR: 2.60), excimer laser coronary atherectomy (ELCA) (OR: 3.39) and chronic total occlusion PCI (OR: 4.21). Risk predictive model (APOLLO-XI score) was calculated from the total points of each variables as follows: age (1 point per 10-year increase), hydrophilic guidewire (2 points), prior CABG (3 points), insulin-treated diabetes or rotational atherectomy (4 points), ELCA (5 points) and chronic total occlusion PCI (6 points). Cumulative risk score more than 11 points had increased risk for coronary perforation more than 1%. The validation of the risk predictive model (C-statistic) was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.70–0.80). Conclusions Coronary perforation is a rare but lethal complication. Our study demonstrates the risk predictive model which could enhance cardiovascular team to precisely estimate risk of coronary perforation before complex PCI procedure. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None. Baseline charecteristicsAPOLLO-XI score