Seismic risk of typical ageing petrochemical steel structure in harsh atmospheric conditions

Abstract This paper addresses the evaluation of the effects of corrosion on the performance of ageing steel industrial infrastructures. A novel probabilistic risk assessment method is presented with respect to a case study of a real petrochemical structure located in an atmospheric environment with high severity of corrosion. The results of damage assessment derived from refined fragility analyses revealed that long-term corrosion mass reduction can increase the probability of damage to the structure by an average of 40%. Furthermore, the risk analysis demonstrated that the annual failure rate of the corroded structure is at most 2.80 times that of the uncorroded counterpart. The vulnerability analysis showed that the difference in annual repair costs between corroded and uncorroded cases gradually increased as the severity of ground motion raised. Moreover, the results of comprehensive and refined nonlinear analyses indicated that the corroded structure after 50 and 100 years can increase the likelihood of causing corrosion repair costs in the first year by about 40 and 60 times, respectively. The evaluation of the ratio of construction to maintenance and retrofitting was also carried out; it was based on innovative retrofitting measures with the use of Carbon Fibre Reinforced Polymers for steel structures. The findings illustrated in the present numerical study can help owners and insurance companies to predict more reliably maintenance and repair costs, thus they can provide an efficient roadmap for industrial asset management.