Dynamic evolution, regional differences and influencing factors of high-quality development of China’s logistics industry

Promoting high-quality development of logistics industry (LHQD) becomes imperative to decrease logistics costs in real economy and intensify endogenous power of economic development. In this paper, we construct an evaluation system consisting of 21 indicators in four dimensions: output scale, operation quality, social contribution and green development. Thereafter, we apply improved entropy weight method, kernel density estimation and Dagum Gini coefficient to carve out spatial and temporal distribution, dynamic evolution and regional differences of LHQD. Finally, we adopt geographical and temporal weighted regression (GTWR) model to reveal heterogeneous effect of each selected factor on LHQD. Outcome indicates: (1) The level of LHQD rose at average annual growth rate of 2.776% between 2004 and 2018, however with significant regional and inter-provincial differences. (2) The LHQD in the whole nation and the three major regions were bipolar or multipolar, with distinctive gradient characteristics. (3) The overall difference of LHQD primarily came from deviation in growth among three major regions, and this difference kept expanding. (4) The impact of various factors on LHQD was characterized by spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Specifically, the positive impact of innovation capacity, digitalization level, foreign direct investment, transportation infrastructure and environmental regulation on development of logistics industry gradually increased with time. It was stronger for eastern region than western region. In contrast, industrial agglomeration’s stimulus to LHQD had diminished, and the high-value region of its positive impact had shifted from east to center.