Elucidating Contributions of Anthropogenic Volatile Organic Compounds and Particulate Matter to Ozone Trends over China

In China, emissions of ozone (O3)-producing pollutants have been targeted for mitigation to reduce O3 pollution. However, the observed O3 decrease is slower than/opposite to expectations affecting the health of millions of people. For a better understanding of this failure and its connection with anthropogenic emissions, we quantify the summer O3 trends that would have occurred had the weather stayed constant by applying a numerical tool that "de-weathers" observations across 31 urban regions (123 cities and 392 sites) over 8 years. O3 trends are significant (p < 0.05) over 234 sites after de-weathering, contrary to the directly observed trends (only 39 significant due to high meteorology-induced variability). The de-weathered data allow categorizing cities in China into four different groups regarding O3 mitigation, with group 1 exhibiting steady O3 reductions, while group 4 showing significant (p < 0.05) O3 increases. Analysis of the relationships between de-weathered odd oxygen and nitrogen oxides illustrates how the changes in NOx, in anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and reductions in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) affect the O3 trends differently in these groups. While this analysis suggests that VOC reductions are the main driver of O3 decreases in group 1, groups 3 and 4 are primarily affected by decreasing PM2.5, which results in enhanced O3 formation. Our analysis demonstrates both the importance of and possibility for isolating emission-driven changes from climate and weather for interpreting short-term air quality observations.