Unraveling the dynamics of atmospheric methane: the impact of anthropogenic and natural emissions

Abstract The reduction in methane concentration is crucial for achieving the goals of the Paris agreement. However, its annual growth rate is unstable, and understanding the reasons for changes in methane growth is essential for climate policy-making. Currently, there is considerable uncertainty regarding its attribution. Here, we utilize multi-source data and optimal fingerprinting methods to detect the contributions of several key drivers to the methane trend and interannual variability. We find that the methane growth trend is primarily influenced by anthropogenic emissions, while interannual variability is predominantly determined by wetland and biomass burning emissions. This result underscores the central role of anthropogenic emissions in methane dynamics, providing confidence in the effectiveness of human efforts to control methane atmospheric concentrations through emission reductions. It also helps alleviate concerns about the recent surge in atmospheric methane concentration, as it may be a short-term peak caused by increased wetland emissions rather than a long-term change.