Rebound effects undermine carbon footprint reduction potential of autonomous electric vehicles

Abstract Autonomous vehicles offer greater passenger convenience and improved fuel efficiency. However, they are likely to increase road transport activity and life cycle greenhouse emissions, due to several rebound effects. In this study, we investigate tradeoffs between improved fuel economy and rebound effects from a life-cycle perspective. Our results show that autonomy introduces an average 21.2% decrease in operation phase emissions due to improved fuel economy while manufacturing phase emissions can surge up to 40%. Recycling efforts can offset this increase, cutting emissions by 6.65 tons of Carbon dioxide equivalent per vehicle. However, when examining the entire life cycle, autonomous electric vehicles might emit 8% more greenhouse gas emissions on average compared to nonautonomous electric vehicles. To address this, we suggest; (1) cleaner and more efficient manufacturing technologies, (2) ongoing fuel efficiency improvements in autonomous driving; (3) renewable energy adoption for charging, and (4) circular economy initiatives targeting the complete life cycle.