White matter predictors of PTSD: Testing different machine learning models in a sample of Black American women

Machine learning neuroimaging studies of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) show promise for identifying neurobiological signatures of PTSD. However, studies to date, have largely evaluated a single machine learning approach, and few studies have examined white matter microstructure as a predictor of PTSD. Further, individuals from minoritized racial groups, specifically, Black individuals, who experience disproportionate trauma frequency, and have relatively higher rates of PTSD, have been underrepresented in these studies. We used four different machine learning models to test white matter microstructure classifiers of PTSD in a sample of trauma-exposed Black American women with and without PTSD. Participants included 45 Black women with PTSD and 89 trauma-exposed controls recruited from an ongoing trauma study. Current PTSD presence was estimated using the Clinician-Administered PTSD Scale. Average fractional anisotropy of 53 white matter tracts served as input features. Additional exploratory analysis incorporated estimates of interpersonal and structural racism exposure. Classification models included linear support vector machine, radial basis function support vector machine, multilayer perceptron, and random forest. Performance varied notably between models. With white matter features along, linear support vector machine demonstrated the best model fit and reached an average AUC = 0.643. Inclusion of estimates of exposure to racism increased linear support vector machine performance (AUC = 0.808). White matter microstructure had limited ability to predict PTSD presence in this sample. These results may indicate that the relationship between white matter microstructure and PTSD may be nuanced across race and gender spectrums.