A stock rank prediction method combining industry attributes and price data of stocks

Stock forecasting has always been challenging as the stock market is affected by a combination of factors. Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) based on convolutional structure has been widely used in time series prediction in recent years, but the dilated causal convolution structure leaves it unable to effectively learn the dependencies between data at different time points. This paper proposes a method for stock ranking prediction. To enhance the ability of TCN to handle dependencies within series, we first develop a channel-time dual attention module (CTAM). In conjunction with TCN to process complex historical stock price data, CTAM can adaptively learn the importance of multiple price nature series of stocks and model the dependencies between the data at different times. On the other hand, due to the market industry rotation, some stocks with specific industry attributes may become market preference for a period time. To apply the industry attributes to the stock prediction, we construct an industry-stock Pearson correlation matrix and extract a vector that fully characterizes the industry attributes of stocks from it through a matrix factorization algorithm. Furthermore, the historical market preference is modeled according to the industry attribute of the stocks to generate the dynamic correlation between stocks and market preference, and this correlation is combined with the historical price features extracted by TCN for stock ranking prediction. We conduct experiments on three datasets of 950 constituent stocks of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, 750 constituent stocks of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange 1000 Index and 486 stocks of the S&P500 to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. On the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index dataset, the Investment Return Ratio (IRR) obtained by using the predict results of our method to guide the exchange reached 1.416, and the Sharpe Ratio (SR) reached 2.346. On the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index dataset, the IRR reached 1.434 and the Sharpe ratio reached 2.317. On the S&P500, the IRR reached 1.491 and the Sharpe ratio reached 2.031.