Impacts of Future Climate Change and Xiamen’s Territorial Spatial Planning on Carbon Storage and Sequestration

The intensification of climate change and the implementation of territorial spatial planning policies have jointly increased the complexity of future carbon storage changes. However, the impact of territorial spatial planning on carbon storage under future climate change remains unclear. Therefore, this study aims to reveal the potential impacts of future climate change and territorial spatial planning on carbon storage and sequestration, providing decision support for addressing climate change and optimizing territorial spatial planning. We employed the FLUS model, the InVEST model, and the variance partitioning analysis (VPA) method to simulate carbon storage under 15 different scenarios that combine climate change scenarios and territorial spatial planning for Xiamen in 2035, and to quantify the individual and combined impacts of territorial spatial planning and climate change on ecosystem carbon sequestration. The results showed that (1) by 2035, Xiamen’s carbon storage capacity is expected to range from 32.66 × 106 Mg to 33.00 × 106 Mg under various scenarios, reflecting a decrease from 2020 levels; (2) the implementation of territorial spatial planning is conducive to preserving Xiamen’s carbon storage, with the urban development boundary proving to be the most effective; (3) carbon storage is greatly affected by climate change, with RCP 4.5 more effective than RCP 8.5 in maintaining higher levels of carbon storage; and (4) the influence of territorial spatial planning on carbon sequestration consistently exceeds that of climate change, particularly under high-emission scenarios, where the regulatory effect of planning is especially significant.