Association Between Glycemic Variability and Persistent Acute Kidney Injury After Noncardiac Major Surgery: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: While the relationship between glycemic variability (GV) and acute kidney injury (AKI) has been a subject of interest, the specific association of GV with persistent AKI beyond 48 hours postoperative after noncardiac surgery is not well-established. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study aimed to describe the patterns of different GV metrics in the immediate 48 hours after noncardiac surgery, evaluate the association between GV indices and persistent AKI within the 7-day postoperative window, and compare the risk identification capabilities of various GV for persistent AKI. A total of 10,937 patients who underwent major noncardiac surgery across 3 medical centers in eastern China between January 2015 and September 2023 were enrolled. GV was characterized using the coefficient of variations (CV), mean amplitude of glycemic excursions (MAGE), and the blood glucose risk index (BGRI). Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between GV and AKI. Optimal cutoff values for GV metrics were calculated through the risk identification models, and an independent cohort from the INformative Surgical Patient dataset for Innovative Research Environment (INSPIRE) database with 7714 eligible cases served to externally validate the risk identification capability. RESULTS: Overall, 274 (2.5%) of the 10,937 patients undergoing major noncardiac surgery met the criteria of persistent AKI. Higher GV was associated with an increased risk of persistent AKI (CV: odds ratio [OR] = 1.26, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08–1.46; MAGE: OR = 1.31, 95% CI, 1.15–1.49; BGRI: OR = 1.18, 95% CI, 1.08–1.29). Compared to models that did not consider glycemic factors, MAGE and BGRI independently contributed to predicting persistent AKI (MAGE: areas under the curve [AUC] = 0.768, P = .011; BGRI: AUC = 0.764, P = .014), with cutoff points of 3.78 for MAGE, and 3.02 for BGRI. The classification of both the internal and external validation cohorts using cutoffs demonstrated good performance, achieving the best AUC values of 0.768 for MAGE in the internal cohort and 0.777 for MAGE in the external cohort. CONCLUSIONS: GV measured within 48 hours postoperative period is an independent risk factor for persistent AKI in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Specific cutoff points can be used to stratify at-risk patients. These findings indicate that stabilizing GV may potentially mitigate adverse kidney outcomes after noncardiac surgery, highlighting the importance of glycemic control in the perioperative period.