Agricultural production agglomeration and total factor carbon productivity: based on NDDF–MML index analysis

Purpose Agricultural carbon productivity considers the dual goals of “agricultural economic growth” and “carbon emission reduction”. Improving agricultural carbon productivity is a requirement for promoting green and low-carbon development of agriculture. Agricultural production agglomeration is widespread worldwide, but the relationship between agricultural production agglomeration and agricultural carbon productivity is inconclusive. This paper aims to study the impact of agricultural production agglomeration on agricultural carbon productivity, which is conducive to a better understanding of the relationships among agglomeration, agricultural economic development and carbon emission, better planning of agricultural layout to build a modern agricultural industrial system and achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Design/methodology/approach Based on China's provincial data from 1991 to 2019, this paper uses non-radial directional distance function (NDDF) and Metafrontier Malmquist–Luenberger (MML) productivity index to measure total factor agricultural carbon productivity. Subsequently, using a panel two-way fixed effect model to study the effect and mechanism of agricultural production agglomeration on agricultural carbon productivity, and the two-stage least squares method (IV-2SLS) is used to solve endogeneity. Finally, this paper formulates a moderating effect model from the perspective of the efficiency of agricultural material capital inputs. Findings The empirical results identify that Chinese provincial agricultural carbon productivity has an overall growth trend and agricultural technological progress is the major source of growth. There is an inverted U -shaped relationship between agricultural production agglomeration and agricultural carbon productivity. The input efficiency of agricultural film, machine and water resources have moderating effects on the inverted U -shaped relationship. Agricultural production agglomeration also promotes agricultural carbon productivity by inhibiting agricultural carbon emissions in addition to affecting agricultural input factors and its internal mechanisms are agricultural green technology progress and rural human capital improvement. Originality/value This paper innovatively adopts the NDDF–MML method to measure the total factor agricultural carbon productivity more scientifically and accurately and solves the problems of ignoring group heterogeneity and the shortcomings of traditional productivity measurement in previous studies. This paper also explains the inverted U -shaped relationship between agricultural production agglomeration and agricultural carbon productivity theoretically and empirically. Furthermore, from the perspective of agricultural material capital input efficiency, this paper discusses the moderating effect of input efficiency of fertilizers, pesticides, agricultural film, agricultural machines and water resources on agricultural production agglomeration affecting agricultural carbon productivity and answers the mechanism of carbon emission reduction of agricultural production agglomeration.