Factors affecting marine ranching risk in China and their hierarchical relationships based on DEMATEL, ISM, and BN

Marine ranching have attracted wide attention in the marine fishery in recent years owing to numerous benefits for sustainable development. However, existing research efforts on marine ranching risk management are very limited, and no prior in-depth research has focused on studying the risk interdependencies in marine ranching from the perspectives of multiple risks. This paper begins by identifying 29 marine ranching risks using a systematic literature review and experts propose. Next, the cause-effect diagram and hierarchical network model of marine ranching are obtained using the combined DEMATEL - ISM method, which clearly confirms the interdependent relationships among various risk factors. It also identifies the most critical factors, which enables the operators of the marine ranching to make decisions to reduce risks. Then the hierarchical network model is mapped to a BN and expert judgments are further transformed into the conditional probability distribution by software Netica, in order to quantify the strength of the interdependent relationships among the marine ranching risk system, and determine main paths resulting in risk occurrence. According to the research results, the risk occurrence probability of marine ranching is high, with a probability of 85.1%，and the most approximate cause path leading to the occurrence of risk are determined—namely, X27(Long construction cycle) → X10(Financing difficulties) → X15(Safety hazards) → X11(Investment return risk) → Y(Marine ranching risk) and X9(Lack of technical talent) → X8(Monitoring failure) → X2(Habitat destruction) → X26(Large preinvestment) → X10 → X15 → X11(Investment return risk) → Y. Through the established risk analysis model, the key risk factors in the implementation process of marine ranching can be obtained, which is helpful for in-depth understanding of the risk information of marine ranching and more effective risk management of marine ranching.