投资(军事)
贝叶斯网络
网格
灵敏度(控制系统)
风险分析(工程)
投资策略
概率逻辑
比例(比率)
计算机科学
可靠性工程
运筹学
工程类
业务
财务
政治
物理
量子力学
数学
人工智能
市场流动性
电子工程
法学
政治学
几何学
作者
Jiansong Wu,Lin-Lin Zhang,Yiping Bai,Genserik Reniers
标识
DOI:10.1016/j.ress.2022.108331
摘要
In recent years, frequent large-scale power grid accidents have caused serious economic losses and bad social impact, which has drawn great attention from power grid enterprises. As one of the key elements of production, safety investment plays an important role in improving the safety level and reducing accident loss. In this paper, System dynamics (SD) and Bayesian network (BN) are integrated to develop a novel safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises, which takes into account the impact of safety investment factors on accidents and the interactions between them. Based on sensitivity analysis, critical safety investment factors are determined to form the subsystem of the SD model. Subsequently, the optimal safety investment strategy is determined by a three-step simulation. The simulation results show that there are barrel effects and a diminishing marginal utility in safety investment. The proposed safety investment optimization model is practical to provide technical supports and guidance for determining an effective safety investment strategy in power grid enterprises.
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