Comparing Groundwater Storage Changes in Two Main Grain Producing Areas in China: Implications for Sustainable Agricultural Water Resources Management

Balancing groundwater supply and food production is challenging, especially in large regions where there is often insufficient information on the groundwater budget, such as in the North China Plain (NCP) and the Northeast China Plain (NECP), which are major food producing areas in China. This study aimed to understand this process in a simple but efficient way by using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, and it focused on historical and projected groundwater storage (GWS) changes in response to changes in grain-sown areas. The results showed that during 2003–2016, the GWS was depleted in the NCP at a rate of −17.2 ± 0.8 mm/yr despite a decrease in groundwater abstraction along with an increase in food production and a stable sown area, while in the NECP, the GWS increased by 2.3 ± 0.7 mm/yr and the groundwater abstraction, food production and the sown area also increased. The scenario simulation using GRACE-derived GWS anomalies during 2003–2016 as the baseline showed that the GWS changes in the NCP can be balanced (i.e., no decreasing trend in storage) by reducing the area of winter wheat and maize by 1.31 × 106 ha and 3.21 × 106 ha, respectively, or by reducing both by 0.93 × 106 ha. In the NECP, the groundwater can sustain an additional area of 0.62 × 106 ha of maize without a decrease in storage. The results also revealed that the current groundwater management policies cannot facilitate the recovery of the GWS in the NCP unless the sown ratio of drought-resistance wheat is increased from 90% to 95%. This study highlights the effectiveness of using GRACE to understanding the nexus between groundwater supply and food production at large scales.