Decoupling Natural and Anthropogenic Impacts on Ecosystem Services in the Yarlung Tsangpo River, Lhasa River, and Nianchu River Basin of Xizang

Under the dual pressures of climate change and anthropogenic activities, the sustainability of the fragile ecosystem on the Qingzang Plateau has garnered considerable attention. This study, taking the Yarlung Tsangpo River, Lhasa River, and Nianchu River Basin (YNL) of Xizang as a case study, systematically assesses the spatiotemporal evolution of its ecosystem services from 2000 to 2020. It reveals a critical dynamic: while regional ecosystem services have shown an overall improving trend over the past two decades, driven jointly by a warmer and wetter climate and ecological engineering projects, the adverse impacts of human activities have intensified significantly, posing an emerging and growing threat to regional ecological security. Based on the InVEST model, this research quantifies four key services and constructs a Comprehensive Ecosystem Service (CES) index to evaluate the overall ecosystem function. Subsequently, an integrated Principal Component Analysis and Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PCA-PLS-SEM) analytical framework is employed to decouple the complex pathways driving CES successfully. The results confirm that climate and topography are the fundamental natural drivers determining the spatial pattern of ecosystem services, which is characterized as being high in the east and low in the west. The core contribution of this study lies in its quantitative identification of the coexisting reality of “ecological improvement” and “development pressure” in the region. It emphasizes that future management strategies must urgently shift from a static conservation approach to an integrated paradigm capable of proactively addressing human–land contradictions. This provides a critical scientific basis for safeguarding China’s national ecological security barrier.