Reverse globalization suppresses phosphorus trade and aggravates food insufficiency and greenhouse gas intensity

In the years 2021 and 2022, trade flows have changed dramatically due to regional conflicts, thereby affecting food sufficiency and the sustainability of agriculture worldwide. Here we assess the impacts of those conflicts on the trade and consumption of food and phosphorous (P) fertilizers, and the associated impacts on food sufficiency, P use efficiency and GHG emissions from commodity transport. The study covers a total of 203 countries worldwide. During the two years the global net fertilizer P trade reduced by 35% and of agricultural products by 9%, strongly deviating from the historical trends of increasing trade volumes, and exacerbating the unequal regional distribution of global P consumption and food supply. Route blockages affecting P trade increased the global GHG emissions per unit P by 20% on average, indicating increased environmental costs of P use. Continuing these regional conflicts triples the number of countries facing insufficient dietary P consumption (from 13 to 58) as well as the number of countries facing food insecurity (rising from 124 to 149). The reversed globalization indirectly led to lower P fertilizer use, thereby increasing its use efficiency by 6% on average, with an increase up to 15% in Western Europe. Strong regional differences occur in both P use efficiency and environmental costs. Our analysis highlights the necessity of international targeted cooperation to avoid negative impacts of these regional conflicts and trade policies on global food sufficiency and environmental quality. Using an optimal linear programming model, we showed that via target policy and market innovations it is possible to avoid food crises worldwide while increase P use efficiency and minimizing GHG emissions from P trade by 31%.