Enterprise Digital Transformation and Carbon Emission Performance: The Moderating Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty

This paper investigates the effects of enterprise digital transformation on carbon performance, with a particular focus on both total carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity. It further examines how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) moderates these relationships. Drawing on panel data of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2011 to 2023, we construct firm-level indicators for digital transformation, carbon emissions, and EPU. The empirical results show that digital transformation significantly reduces carbon emission intensity by advancing green technological innovation and enhancing factor allocation efficiency. However, it also contributes to an increase in total carbon emissions due to the scale effect associated with production expansion. Moreover, elevated levels of EPU weaken the positive environmental impact of digital transformation by diminishing the marginal benefits of green innovation and resource optimization, thereby dampening improvements in carbon intensity and limiting increases in total emissions. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals that the impact of digital transformation is more pronounced in large enterprises, firms operating in high-carbon sectors, and those located in economically developed regions. In contrast, the moderating effect of EPU is significantly stronger among smaller firms, heavily polluting industries, and enterprises in less-developed regions. Overall, these findings provide novel insights into the dual effects of digital transformation on environmental outcomes and underscore the critical role of policy uncertainty in shaping these dynamics.