Predictive value of a prognostic model based on pathologic features in lung invasive adenocarcinoma

Tumor spread through air spaces (STAS) was recently reported as a novel risk factor for the prognosis of patients with resected lung adenocarcinoma that indicates invasive tumor behavior. The purpose of this study was to build a prognostic model consisting of STAS and other pathologic features including visceral pleural invasion (VPI), vascular invasion (VI) and histological subtype (HS) in lung invasive adenocarcinoma.A total of 289 patients with resected lung invasive adenocarcinomas ≤4 cm were analyzed retrospectively to evaluate the potential prognostic value of STAS, VPI, VI and HS for recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS).STAS was observed in 143 patients (49.5%). Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that STAS, VPI, VI and HS were significant prognostic factors for poorer RFS and OS. Thus, a prognostic model including STAS, VPI, VI and HS was built using the results of the multivariate analysis. Nomograms were developed to predict the 5-year RFS and OS. The concordance index (C-index) of the prognostic model was 0.8122 for predicting 5-year RFS and 0.8539 for predicting 5-year OS in the internal validation. Moreover, the calibration curves for the 5-year RFS and OS showed that the nomograms were calibrated well. In addition, a similar predicted capability of the prognostic model was observed in the validation cohort.STAS, VPI, VI and HS were significant prognostic factors for poorer RFS and OS. The prognostic model including STAS, VPI, VI and HS could effectively predict prognosis.