Sequence History Analysis (SHA): Estimating the Effect of Past Trajectories on an Upcoming Event

In this article, we propose an innovative method which is a combination of Sequences Analysis and Event History Analysis. We called this method Sequence History Analysis (SHA). We start by identifying typical past trajectories of individuals over time by using Sequence Analysis. We then estimate the effect of these typical past trajectories on the event under study using discrete-time models. The aim of this approach is to estimate the effect of past trajectories on the chances of experiencing an event. We apply the proposed methodological approach to an original study of the effect of past childhood co-residence structures on the chances of leaving the parental home in Switzerland. The empirical research was based on the LIVES Cohort study, a panel survey that started in autumn 2013 in Switzerland. Analyses show that it is not only the occurrence of an event that increases the risk of experiencing another event, but also the order in which various states occurred. What is more, it seems that two features have a significant influence on departure from the parental home: the co-residence structures and the arrival or departure of siblings from the parental home.