Recent leveling off of vegetation greenness and primary production reveals the increasing soil water limitations on the greening Earth

Abstract Global vegetation photosynthesis and productivity have increased substantially since the 1980s, but this trend is heterogeneous in both time and space. Here, we categorize the secular trend in global vegetation greenness into sustained greening, sustained browning and greening-to-browning. We found that by 2016, increased global vegetation greenness had begun to level off, with the area of browning increasing in the last decade, reaching 39.0 million km2 (35.9% of the world’s vegetated area). This area is larger than the area with sustained increasing growth (27.8 million km2, 26.4%); thus, 12.0% ± 3.1% (0.019 ± 0.004 NDVI a−1) of the previous earlier increase has been offset since 2010 (2010–2016, P