Intention to have a second child, family support and actual fertility behavior in current China: An evolutionary perspective

Abstract Objectives This study provides an evolutionary perspective to a classic topic in demography, that is, the discrepancy between reproductive intention and subsequent behavior, in the context of China's two‐child policy. Methods We conduct an event history analysis of longitudinal data from the 2015 and 2018 waves of the Xi'an Fertility Survey (sample size = 321 followed one‐child mothers) to test the hypotheses of how within‐family support/conflict affects women's fertility behavior. Results Only 50% of positive intentions (i.e., intending to have a second child) led to another (live) birth within the 3‐year interval; meanwhile, 15% of uncertain intentions and 5% of negative intentions resulted in a birth. Husband's and the firstborn's emotional support raised the hazard of second childbirth along maternal life course, which cannot be fully mediated by mother's fertility intention and thus, contributed to an intention‐behavior gap. Husband's sibship size had dual effects on female childbearing behavior: A positive indirect effect mediated by fertility intention, but a negative direct effect presumably due to sibling competition for intergenerational support. Finally, after controlling for fertility intention, having a firstborn son was still associated significantly with a lower second‐childbirth hazard, presumably due to son preference as well as concern over parental investment. Conclusions Our study identifies a discrepancy between maternal fertility intention and realized childbearing, which was partly explained by (lack of) support from other (multiple) stakeholders in family reproduction.