Trends and predictions of myopia among Chinese children aged 7–12 years from 1985 to 2019

The objectibve of this study was to analyze the prevalence, geographic distribution, and trends of myopia among Chinese children aged 7 to 12 years, in order to provide a basis for prevention and management. Data for children aged 7 to 12 years from the Chinese National Survey on Students' Constitution and Health (1985-2019) and 2019 myopia study for Han Chinese students aged 6 to 12 years were analyzed. The chi-square test and polynomial regression models were used to assess changes in myopia prevalence and predict trends. Data from 1,063,280 children in 30 provinces (excluding Tibet, Hong Kong, Macau) showed a 3.3-fold increase in myopia from 12.69% in 1985 to 41.33% in 2019. Myopia peaked in 2010, then slowed. In 2019, myopia prevalence among Han Chinese children aged 6-12 was 37.54%, higher in urban (40.39%) than rural (34.62%) areas. The eastern region had the highest rate (40.38%). Projections estimate a prevalence of 40.39% in 2025, decreasing to 33.46% by 2030. Rural areas showed a faster increase from 2014 to 2019, with rural rates expected to surpass urban rates by 2022. Myopia prevalence is high among Chinese children aged 7 to 12 years, particularly in rural areas where rates are rising, underscoring the need for targeted prevention strategies.