Spatio-temporal Tensor Multi-Task Learning for Predicting Alzheimer's Disease in a Longitudinal study

The utilisation of machine learning techniques to predict Alzheimer's Disease (AD) progression will substantially assist researchers and clinicians in establishing effective AD prevention and treatment strategies. In this research, we present a novel Multi-Task Learning (MTL) model for modelling AD progression based on tensor formation from spatio-temporal similarity measures of brain biomarkers. In this model, each patient sample's prediction in the tensor is assigned to a task, with each task sharing a set of latent factors acquired via tensor decomposition. To further improve the performance of the model, we present a novel regularisation term which utilises the convex combination of disease progression to modify longitudinal stability and ensure that two regression models have a minimal variation at successive time points. The model can be utilised to effectively predict AD progression with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data and cognitive scores of AD patients at various stages. We conducted extensive experiments to evaluate the performance for the proposed model and algorithm utilising data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI). Compared to single-task and state-of-the-art multi-task regression techniques, our proposed method has greater accuracy and stability for predicting AD progress in terms of root mean square error, with an average reduction of 2.60 compared to single-task regression methods and 1.17 compared to multi-task regression methods in the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) questionnaire; with an average reduction of 5.08 compared to single-task regression methods and 2.71 compared to multi-task regression methods in the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subscale (ADAS-Cog).