Shades of Opinion: The Oil Exporting Countries and International Climate Politics

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes Emanuel Adler, 'Seizing the Middle Ground: Constructivism in World Politics', European Journal of International Relations, Vol. 3, no. 3 (1999), pp. 319–63. John Gerard Ruggie, Constructing the World Polity. Essays on International Institutionalization (London/New York: Routledge, 1998), p. 3. Jeffrey Alexander as quoted in Adler, 'Seizing the Middle Ground: Constructivism in World Politics', p. 324. Alexander Wendt, 'Identity and Structural Change in International Politics', in Yosef Lapid and Friedrich Kratochwil (eds.), The Return of Culture and Identity in IR Theory (Boulder/London: Lynne Rienner, 1996), p. 50. Ruggie, Constructing the World Polity, p. 33. Adler, 'Seizing the Middle Ground: Constructivism in World Politics', p. 337. Ibid., p. 343. John A. Hannigan, Environmental Sociology. A Social Constructionist Perspective (London/New York: Routledge, 1995), p. 30. The analytical framework proposed by Gerd Nonneman at the workshop on 'The Determinants of Middle Eastern and North African States' Foreign Policies: with Special Reference to their Relations with Europe', at the Third Mediterranean Social and Political Research Meeting, Florence and Montecatini Terme, March 20–24, 2002. See his contribution 'Analyzing the Foreign Policies of the Middle East and North Africa: an Analytical Framework,' in this volume. Richard van der Wurff, 'International Climate Change Politics. Interests and Perceptions' (Amsterdam: PhD. dissertation, University of Amsterdam, 1997), pp. 71–6. At the September 2002 Johannesburg Summit both Prime Minister Kasyanov and President Putin announced Russia's intent to ratify the Protocol. But by the Spring of 2003, doubts about timing had appeared; Russian officials said in January that although the political question had been solved, the economic scenarios remained to be worked out (Reuters, Jan. 15, 2003). Hermann E. Ott, 'Climate Change: An Important Foreign Policy Issue', International Affairs, 77, 2 (2001), p. 295. European Commission, Green Paper: Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply (Brussels, 2001), p. 105. During the course of the negotiations different member states of the G77 follow their own national interests and the structure of the process provides them with the opportunities to lobby solely for their own preferences or to form ad hoc coalitions on specific issues with varying partners. In this complex process in and outside the plenary hall of the negotiations, the G77/China is all but a unified coalition, but in drafting the final texts they more or less operate as a bloc countering the EU and the Umbrella Group. OPEC Bulletin, Feb. 2001, p. 5. Quote from Ali bin Ibrahim al-Naimi, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister, during COP-6b in Bonn. < earthtimes.org.jul/bonnconferencearabsbalkjul21-01.htm >, viewed Nov. 13, 2001. Also see Gerd Nonneman, 'Saudi–European Relations 1902–2001: A Pragmatic Quest for Relative Autonomy', in International Affairs, 77, 3, (2001), pp. 631–61: p. 655. Similar arguments and conclusions are, not surprisingly, also put forward by OAPEC, as illustrated in the editorials of that organization's monthly Bulletin. Robert Mabro, 'The Consumers' Environmental Policies and the Oil-Exporting Countries', in OPEC Seminar on the Environment (Vienna: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, April 1992), p. 188. Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change, Analysis of the Impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Export Revenues of OPEC Member States and on the Oil Import Requirements of Non-Annex I Countries (Bilthoven, 2002), Report No. 410 200 044. International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2000 (Paris, 2000); and Richard Mably, 'IEA Says Fossil Fuels to Stay King over Next 20 Years', GULF2000, < www1.columbia.edu/sec-cgi-bin/ >, viewed Dec. 6, 2000. This has been distressingly illustrated by the deployment of the oil weapon 'in reverse' (against Iran, Libya and Iraq). See Paul Aarts, The Arab Oil Weapon: A One-Shot Edition? (Abu Dhabi: The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, 1999), The Emirates Occasional Papers, no.34. Paul Stevens, 'Future Prospects for Oil Revenues in the Gulf Cooperation Council', GULF2000, < www1.columbia.edu/sec-cgi-bin/g >, viewed Dec. 8, 2000. 'Yamani Says OPEC Accelerating End of the Oil Era', GULF2000, < www1.columbia.edu/sec-cgi-bin/ >, viewed Dec. 6, 2000. Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change, Analysis of the Impact of the Kyoto Protocol, p. 8. Ibid. For OPEC figures, see OPEC Bulletin, Dec. 2000, p. 9; D. Ghasemzadeh's presentation at the UNFCCC Workshop on the Implementation of Articles 4.8 and 4.9 of the UNFCCC and 2.3 and 3.14 of the Kyoto Protocol (Bonn, Sep. 1999); D. Ghasemzadeh and F. Alawadhi's presentation at the IPCC Experts Workshop on Sectoral Economic Costs and benefits of GHG Mitigation (Eisenach, Feb. 14–15, 2000). Different estimates are given by Ulrich Bartsch and Benito Müller, Fossil Fuels in a Changing Climate (Oxford: Oxford University Press 2000), pp. 186–213 and 297–310, and by Peter Kassler and Matthew Paterson, Energy Exporters and Climate Change (London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1997), pp. 30, 83. Marcel Berk et al., Keeping Our Options Open. A Strategic Vision on Near-Term Implications of Long-Term Climate Policy Options. Results from the COOL Project (Bilthoven: RIVM, 2001), p. 11. This shortcoming is peculiar to studies on these states' climate change policies. By contrast, with regard to oil price policies interesting research has been done on coalition building within OPEC. Different producers' varying economic profiles and interests, and consequent production and pricing policies, of course, have been recognized more readily. Matthew Paterson, Global Warming and Global Politics (London: Routledge, 1996), p. 104. The same applies to Dutch National Research Programme on Global Air Pollution and Climate Change, Analysis of the Impact of the Kyoto Protocol; and Bartsch and Müller, Fossil Fuels in a Changing Climate. Kassler and Paterson, Energy Exporters and Climate Change. For figures on net fossil fuel exports as a percentage of GDP and oil's share as in total exports, see Ghasemzadeh and Alawadhi, presentation at the IPCC Experts Workshop on Sectoral Economic Costs and benefits of GHG Mitigation (Eisenach, Feb. 14–15, 2000); and recent issues of the OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin. As quoted in Kassler and Paterson, Energy Exporters and Climate Change, p. 88. Ibid., p. 95–8; and interviews during COP-7 in Marrakesh (Oct.–Nov. 2001). Interviews with Saudi officials at a later point in time (The Hague, July 2001) indicate, however, that this shift – concerning the issue of scientific (un)certainty – has not been a permanent one. In an interview with Benito Müller, Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, changing Saudi tactics were further elucidated: plus ça change… (Marrakesh, Nov. 2001). Following Van der Wurff ('International Climate Change Politics'), the label 'interest' as such will be understood to refer to 'objective' interests. These objective interests are defined as 'relative stable properties of actors that follow…from [the countries'] position in a social structure and that provides these actors with reasons for action' (p. 271). Nonneman, 'Analyzing the Foreign Policies of the Middle East and North Africa', p. 121 above. In that case we look for perceived needs and desires, and for environmental views (or wider worldviews). It is only then that we have 'reclaimed power and interest from materialism by showing how their content and meaning are constituted by ideas and culture' (Alexander Wendt, Social Theory of International Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1998), p. 371). BP statistical Review of World Energy 2002, < http://www.bp.com >, viewed Aug. 18, 2002. These numbers, however, should be taken with a pinch of salt. They nominally represent the amounts extractable at current prices, but reserve estimates do not rise and fall appropriately as oil prices rise and fall. Ibid. 'Analyzing the Foreign Policies of the Middle East and North Africa: an Analytical Framework', pp. 118–130 above. As stated in interviews with several Iranian officials, Tehran, Aug. 2001. EIA Country Analysis Briefs, < http://www.eia.doe.gov >, viewed Aug. 19, 2002. The prevalence of the 'Dutch Disease' among energy exporters, including the Islamic republic of Iran is one of the factors making diversification difficult. This is the tendency for the exporters' exchange rates to become too strong as a result of the weight of petroleum revenues in their economies, leading to weakness and non-competitiveness of their non-petroleum sectors. For more details, see Dennis Janssen, A Gas-Driven Economy in an Oil-State. An Inventory Research on the Oil-to-Gas Conversion Program of the Islamic Republic of Iran (Tehran: Royal Netherlands Embassy, Aug. 2001). Nadim Kawach, 'Saudi Budget Deficit May Be Lower than Expected', Gulf News, Jan. 14, 2002. Dr Mohammed Al-Sabban interviewed by Middle East Economic Survey, April 2, 2001. For more details, see: United Nations Inter-agency Assessment Report on the Extreme Drought in the Islamic Republic of Iran (Tehran: UNDP, July 2001). EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database (Catholic University of Leuven, Brussels, 2002). DOE: The Comprehensive Plan of Air Pollution Reduction in Tehran (Tehran: Department of the Environment, 2001), p. 7 Dennis Janssen, A Gas-Driven Economy in an Oil-State. < http://www.eia.doe.gov >, viewed Aug. 19, 2002. As stated by Dr Jonathan Pershing, Head of Division Energy and Environment of the IEA, Paris, Aug. 2, 2002. < http://www.eia.doe.gov >, viewed Aug. 19, 2002. For more details, see N. Patrick Peritore, Third World Environmentalism. Case Studies from the Global South (Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 1999), p. 213. For an excellent survey on Iranian environmental NGOs, see Persian Lion, Caspian Tiger. The Role of Iranian Environmental Organizations in Environmental Protection in Iran (Washington: Search for Common Ground, 2000). Interview with Iranian official, The Hague, June 2001. Interview with Mohammad Soltanieh, manager of the Enabling Project in the Field of Climate Change and Professor at the Department of Chemical Engineering of Sharif University of Technology, Marrakesh, Nov. 2001. Interview with Mohammed Al-Sabban, The Hague, June 2001. Roman Rollnick, 'Arabs Balk at Kyoto Protocol', < http://earthtimes.org/jul/ bonnconferencearabsbalkju21_01.htm >, viewed 13 Nov. 2001. For more on this, see Nonneman's recent contribution, 'Saudi–European Relations 1902–2001', op. cit.; and Paul Aarts, Dilemmas of Regional Cooperation in the Middle East (Lancaster: Lancaster University, 1999), The Lancaster Papers, no.4. Interview with Mohammed Al-Sabban, The Hague, June 2001. A more general analysis of Iran's (quite ambiguous) policies vis-à-vis the EU is given by Fred Halliday, 'Western Europe and the Iranian Revolution, 1979–97. An Elusive Normalization', in Barbara Roberson (ed.), The Middle East and Europe: the Power Deficit (London/New York: Routledge), pp. 130–50. The Climate Change Convention established a financial mechanism to provide funds on a grant or concessional basis to help developing countries to implement the Convention and address climate change. The role of operating this mechanism was assigned to the GEF. The World Bank, the UN Development Program (UNDP) and the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) established this multi-billion-dollar fund. Interview with Iranian official, June 2001. See Nonneman's two contributions to this volume: 'Analyzing the Foreign Policy of Middle Eastern and North African States', p. 126; and 'The Three Environments of Middle Eastern Foreign Policy Making', pp. 140–149. A Saudi official cited in Middle East Economic Survey, April 2, 2001.