Ensemble machine learning model identifies patients with HFpEF from matrix-related plasma biomarkers

Arterial hypertension can lead to structural changes within the heart including left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and eventually heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). The initial diagnosis of HFpEF is costly and generally based on later stage remodeling; thus, improved predictive diagnostic tools offer potential clinical benefit. Recent work has shown predictive value of multibiomarker plasma panels for the classification of patients with LVH and HFpEF. We hypothesized that machine learning algorithms could substantially improve the predictive value of circulating plasma biomarkers by leveraging more sophisticated statistical approaches. In this work, we developed an ensemble classification algorithm for the diagnosis of HFpEF within a population of 480 individuals including patients with HFpEF, patients with LVH, and referent control patients. Algorithms showed strong diagnostic performance with receiver-operating-characteristic curve (ROC) areas of 0.92 for identifying patients with LVH and 0.90 for identifying patients with HFpEF using demographic information, plasma biomarkers related to extracellular matrix remodeling, and echocardiogram data. More impressively, the ensemble algorithm produced an ROC area of 0.88 for HFpEF diagnosis using only demographic and plasma panel data. Our findings demonstrate that machine learning-based classification algorithms show promise as a noninvasive diagnostic tool for HFpEF, while also suggesting priority biomarkers for future mechanistic studies to elucidate more specific regulatory roles.