Prediction of Psoriatic Arthritis in Patients With Psoriasis Using DNA Methylation Profiles

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) is an immune-mediated inflammatory arthritis, associated with psoriasis, that significantly increases morbidity and mortality risk. We currently lack the means of predicting which patients with psoriasis will develop PsA, and a large number of patients remain undiagnosed. Regulation of gene expression through DNA methylation can potentially trigger and maintain PsA pathophysiological processes. We aimed to identify DNA methylation markers that can predict which patients with psoriasis will develop PsA prior to the onset of musculoskeletal symptoms.Genome-wide DNA methylation was assessed in blood samples from patients with psoriasis who went on to develop arthritis (converters) and patients with psoriasis who did not (biologic naive, matched for age, sex, psoriasis duration, and duration of follow-up). Methylation differences between converters and nonconverters were identified by a multivariate linear regression model including clinical covariates (age, sex, body mass index, smoking). Predictive performance of methylation markers was assessed by developing support vector machine classification models with and without the addition of clinical variables.We identified a set of 36 highly relevant methylation markers (false discovery rate: adjusted P < 0.05 and a minimum change in methylation of 0.05) across 15 genes and several intergenic regions. A classification model relying on these markers identified converters and nonconverters with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9644.This study shows that DNA methylation patterns at an early stage of psoriatic disease can distinguish between patients who will develop PsA from those who will not during the same follow-up.