The impact of ecological restoration on ecosystem services change modulated by drought and rising CO2

Ecological restoration projects (ERPs) are an indispensable component of natural climate solutions and have proven to be very important for reversing environmental degradation in vulnerable regions and enhancing ecosystem services. However, the level of enhancement would be inevitably influenced by global drought and rising CO2 , which remain less investigated. In this study, we took the Beijing-Tianjin sand source region (which has experienced long-term ERPs), China, as an example and combined the process-based Biome-BGCMuSo model to set multiple scenarios to address this issue. We found ERP-induced carbon sequestration (CS), water retention (WR), soil retention (SR), and sandstorm prevention (SP) increased by 22.21%, 2.87%, 2.35%, and 28.77%, respectively. Moreover, the ecosystem services promotion from afforestation was greater than that from grassland planting. Approximately 91.41%, 98.13%, and 64.51% of the increased CS, SR, and SP were contributed by afforestation. However, afforestation also caused the WR to decline. Although rising CO2 amplified ecosystem services contributed by ERPs, it was almost totally offset by drought. The contribution of ERPs to CS, WR, SR, and SP was reduced by 5.74%, 32.62%, 11.74%, and 14.86%, respectively, under combined drought and rising CO2 . Our results confirmed the importance of ERPs in strengthening ecosystem services provision. Furthermore, we provide a quantitative way to understand the influence rate of drought and rising CO2 on ERP-induced ecosystem service dynamics. In addition, the considerable negative climate change impact implied that restoration strategies should be optimized to improve ecosystem resilience to better combat negative climate change impacts.