Sensitive temperature changes on the Tibetan Plateau in response to global warming

In recent years, rapid global warming has led to a dramatic cryosphere retreat and caused environmental disasters on the Tibetan Plateau (TP). To better understand the near-surface air temperature variation on the TP in response to global warming in the 21st century, we systematically detected temperature changes on the TP relative to global warming regarding warming time, warming amplitude, and elevation-dependent warming (EDW) using the multi-model ensemble (MME) means of 24 CMIP6 models. The results showed that the warming rate on the TP is 1.3–1.45 times more than that of mean global warming from 2015 to 2100, with the TP having already warmed by 1.5 °C above the pre-industrial levels in 2016/2015 and will warm by 2 °C by 2028/2027 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. In addition, the warming amplitude on the TP in response to global warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C would be 1.97 and 2.69 °C under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and 1.94 and 2.68 °C under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. Furthermore, EDW amplifies the warming amplitude at high elevations, mainly because of the decrease in surface albedo. The most sensitive warming amplitude in the cryosphere region, with an elevation of 5–5.5 km, would exceed 2.06, 2.79, 4.29, and 5.73 °C when global warming reaches 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 °C under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. This additional 0.56–1.73 °C warming in the high elevation relative to the global mean will intensify the cryosphere ablation on the TP. Thus, considering the projected larger warming trend and amplitude, the high-elevation region on the TP would be particularly sensitive and vulnerable, which is unfavorable for the TP from the perspective of the Paris Agreement warming target.