Elevated serum HbA1c level, rather than previous history of diabetes, predicts the disease severity and clinical outcomes of acute pancreatitis

Introduction The aim of our study is to explore the value of serum glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) in disease severity and clinical outcomes of acute pancreatitis (AP). Research design and Methods Patients with AP were included from January 2013 to December 2020, retrospectively, dividing into normal serum HbA1c level (N-HbA1c) group and high serum HbA1c level (H-HbA1c) group according to the criteria HbA1c <6.5%. We compared patient characteristics, biochemical parameters, disease severity, and clinical outcomes of patients with AP in two groups. Besides, we evaluated the efficacy of serum HbA1c to predict organ failure (OF) in AP patients by receiver operating curve (ROC). Results We included 441 patients with AP, including 247 patients in N-HbA1c group and 194 patients in H-HbA1c group. Serum HbA1c level was positively correlated with Atlanta classification, systemic inflammatory response syndrome, local complication, and OF (all p<0.05). Ranson, BISAP (bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis), and CT severity index scores in patients with H-HbA1c were markedly higher than those in patients with N-HbA1c (all p<0.01). ROC showed that the best critical point for predicting the development of OF in AP with serum HbA1c is 7.05% (area under the ROC curve=0.79). Logistic regression analysis showed H-HbA1c was the independent risk factor for the development of OF in AP. Interestingly, in patients with presence history of diabetes and HbA1c <6.5%, the severity of AP was significantly lower than that in H-HbA1c group. Besides, there was no significant difference between with and without history of diabetes in N-HbA1c group. Conclusions Generally known, diabetes is closely related to the development of AP, and strict control of blood glucose can improve the related complications. Thus, the level of glycemic control before the onset of AP (HbA1c as an indicator) is the key to poor prognosis of AP, rather than basic history of diabetes. Elevated serum HbA1c level can become the potential indicator for predicting the disease severity of AP.