How does climate change affect productivity in tourism? A spatial analysis based on Chinese cities

Purpose This study aims to examine the impact of climate change on the total factor productivity (TFP) of tourism in Chinese cities. Using temperature and precipitation as proxies for climate change, the research analyzes both the direct negative effects of climate change on tourism productivity and the positive spillover effects on neighboring cities. In addition, it investigates how geographic location and economic development contribute to the variation in these effects. The study also explores the mechanisms through which government intervention and industrial structure upgrading influence these impacts. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a spatial Durbin model to analyze the relationship between climate change and tourism TFP in 287 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2020. Panel data is used, with temperature and precipitation serving as proxies for climate change. The model evaluates both the direct and spillover effects of climate change on tourism productivity, while also analyzing the mechanisms through which government intervention and industrial upgrading affect these relationships. The study further considers how geographic location and economic development impact the results. Findings This study finds that climate change directly reduces tourism TFP, while generating positive spillover effects for neighboring cities. Cities in the eastern and more economically developed regions are more sensitive to climate change, experiencing stronger impacts compared to cities in central and western regions. The findings suggest that government intervention and industrial structure upgrading are important mechanisms through which climate change affects tourism productivity in Chinese cities. Originality/value This research fills a gap in the literature regarding how climate change affects tourism productivity in developing countries, particularly in China. By applying a spatial Durbin model and panel data analysis, the study provides empirical evidence on both the direct and spillover effects of climate change on tourism productivity. It highlights the critical role of government intervention and industrial upgrading as mechanisms shaping the impact of climate change, offering new insights for policymakers and tourism businesses to address the challenges posed by climate change and enhance productivity and competitiveness.