Development of an ultrasound-based radiomics nomogram to preoperatively predict Ki-67 expression level in patients with breast cancer

Objective: To develop and validate a radiomics nomogram that could incorporate clinicopathological characteristics and ultrasound (US)-based radiomics signature to non-invasively predict Ki-67 expression level in patients with breast cancer (BC) preoperatively. Methods: A total of 328 breast lesions from 324 patients with BC who were pathologically confirmed in our hospital from June 2019 to October 2020 were included, and they were divided into high Ki-67 expression level group and low Ki-67 expression level group. Routine US and shear wave elastography (SWE) were performed for each lesion, and the ipsilateral axillary lymph nodes (ALNs) were scanned for abnormal changes. The datasets were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts with a ratio of 7:3. Correlation analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were used to select the radiomics features obtained from gray-scale US images of BC patients, and each radiomics score (Rad-score) was calculated. Afterwards, multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to establish a radiomics nomogram based on the radiomics signature and clinicopathological characteristics. The prediction performance of the nomogram was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) using the results of immunohistochemistry as the gold standard. Results: The radiomics signature, consisted of eight selected radiomics features, achieved a nearly moderate prediction efficacy with AUC of 0.821 (95% CI:0.764-0.880) and 0.713 (95% CI:0.612-0.814) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The radiomics nomogram, incorporating maximum diameter of lesions, stiff rim sign, US-reported ALN status, and radiomics signature showed a promising performance for prediction of Ki-67 expression level, with AUC of 0.904 (95% CI:0.860-0.948) and 0.890 (95% CI:0.817-0.964) in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve and DCA indicated promising consistency and clinical applicability. Conclusion: The proposed US-based radiomics nomogram could be used to non-invasively predict Ki-67 expression level in BC patients preoperatively, and to assist clinicians in making reliable clinical decisions.