Vulnerability of East Asian bumblebee species to future climate and land cover changes

Abstract Pollinators play a key role in agricultural and natural ecosystems, but their biodiversity is highly vulnerable to the impact of environmental changes. Here, we evaluated the distributional responses of 29 bumblebee species endemic to East Asia to future (2050s and 2070s) climate and land cover changes, and 17–27 (59–93 %) of the species exhibited range contraction. A decrease in species richness from 25 to 19 species in the highest region of central China was also detected due to range shifts of 17 km to 574 km. Furthermore, one (3.44%), three to five (10–17 %), and two to eight (7–28 %) of the 29 bumblebee species were predicted to become critically endangered, endangered and vulnerable in the future, respectively. Our study highlights the strong impact of environmental changes on species distributions, and we suggest strategies for the conservation of vulnerable species that include protecting the regions of high species richness and the most dominant land covers within the current range to mitigate the threat of environmental changes.