Education Competition and Fertility Intention: Evidence from China’s Private Tutoring Ban

Abstract Low fertility presents a major challenge for many nations. We study whether restricting competition-driven private tutoring can enhance fertility intentions by analysing China’s 2021 private tutoring ban. Using nationwide surveys, we elicit respondents’ fertility intentions under scenarios with and without the policy. The tutoring ban significantly increases expected total fertility by 7%–8%, with larger effects in cities under greater policy intensity. Decomposition reveals that the primary driver is perceived reduction in educational competition, followed by improved parental health, parent-child relationships, and reduced time and monetary costs. We also find consistent results on actual birth rates three years after the policy.