Exploring Impact Factors of Risk Contagion in Venture Capital Markets: A Complex Network Approach

Large-scale risk events in the venture capital (VC) market can easily lead to systemic risk in the financial market. This paper collects the comprehensive dataset of Chinese VC market from 1999 to 2020, and constructs the multi-layer networks of VC market. After that, a risk contagion model of venture capital market is designed considering both the capital loss transmission and social relations effect (investor herd behavior). By simulating various situations with different risk origins and scales, the speed of risk contagion and the total impacts on the overall stability of the market (network) are compared. We find that the herd behavior of the market will generally aggravate the consequences of risk contagion. Compared with unicorns, the failure of a leading VC firm can cause a wider range of risk contagion. The contagion consequences caused by the failure of random financing companies are more serious than those caused by random VC firms. Moreover, we identify that telecommunications services and information technology are high-risk industries in VC market. Based on the empirical results, this article provides policy implications for the market regulatory sectors to prevent VC market risks.