A comparison study of temporal trends of SARS-CoV2 RNAemia and biomarkers to predict success and failure of high flow oxygen therapy among patients with moderate to severe COVID-19

Optimal timing for intubating patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been debated throughout the pandemic. Early use of high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) can help reduce the need for intubation, but delay can result in poorer outcomes. This study examines trends in laboratory parameters and serum severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA levels of patients with COVID-19 in relation to HFNC failure. Patients requiring HFNC within three days of hospitalization between July 1 and September 30, 2021 were enrolled. The primary outcome was HFNC failure (early failure ≤Day 3; late failure ≥Day 4), defined as transfer to intensive care just before/after intubation or in-hospital death. We examined changes in laboratory markers and SARS-CoV2-RNAemia on Days 1, 4, and 7, together with demographic data, oxygenation status, and therapeutic agents. We conducted a univariate logistic regression with the explanatory variables defined as 10% change rate in each laboratory marker from Day 1 to 4. We utilized the log-rank test to assess the differences in HFNC failure rates, stratified based on the presence of SARS-CoV2 RNAemia. Among 122 patients, 17 (13.9%) experienced HFNC failure (early: n = 6, late: n = 11). Seventy-five patients (61.5%) showed an initial SpO 2 /FiO 2 ratio ≤243, equivalent to PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio ≤200, and the initial SpO 2 /FiO 2 ratio was significantly lower in the failure group (184 vs. 218, p = 0.018). Among the laboratory markers, a 10% increase from Day 1 to 4 of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and interleukin (IL)-6 was associated with late failure (Odds ratio [OR]: 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09–1.89 and OR: 1.04, 95%CI: 1.00–1.19, respectively). Furthermore, in patients with persistent RNAemia on Day 4 or 7, the risk of late HFNC failure was significantly higher (Log-rank test, p<0.01). In conclusion, upward trends in LDH and IL-6 levels and the persistent RNAemia even after treatment were associated with HFNC failure.