Smoking-attributable neurological health loss: age-specific burden and health disparities

Smoking is a significant risk factor for neurological disorders, yet its global impact on these conditions remains underexplored. Using Global Burden of Diseases 2021 data, we analysed trends in age-standardised disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and deaths attributable to smoking from 1990 to 2021 for three neurological disorders: stroke, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, and Multiple Sclerosis. Socioeconomic disparities were assessed using the lope index of inequality and the relative concentration index. Bayesian age-period-cohort models were employed to forecast smoking-attributable burden through 2050. Between 1990 and 2021, annual smoking-attributable DALYs and death rates slightly declined by -1.93% and -1.92%, respectively, but absolute numbers continued to rise, from 26.10 million to 30.18 million DALYs and from 0.93 million to 1.15 million deaths. Older adults (aged 60 and above) experienced the greatest burden, contributing 58.15% of DALYs and 75.57% of deaths in 2021. Smoking-attributable stroke was increasingly concentrated in low sociodemographic index regions, whereas disparities in dementias and multiple sclerosis were more pronounced in socioeconomically advantaged regions, particularly for multiple sclerosis. This study identified an age-specific burden and widening disparities for neurological disorders attributable to smoking, with older adults disproportionately experiencing an escalating impact. Targeted prevention and equitable healthcare access tailored for older adults are critical to mitigating smoking-attributable neurological health loss.