Long-Term Outcomes and Risk Factors of Radiofrequency Ablation for T1N0M0 Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Importance Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) has gained increasing interest as a minimally invasive procedure to treat low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Considering the indolent nature of this disease, studies in large populations with long follow-up would be invaluable to further substantiate the effectiveness of RFA. Objective To evaluate the long-term (58.5 months) outcomes of patients with T1N0M0 PTC who underwent RFA and investigate risk factors for local tumor progression (LTP). Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study included 1613 patients aged 18 years or older with T1N0M0 PTC who underwent ultrasonography-guided RFA between January 2014 and December 2020 at the Chinese People’s Liberation Army General Hospital in Beijing, China. Included in the analysis were patients with PTC (confirmed by biopsy) with a maximum diameter of 20 mm or less; no evidence of extrathyroidal extension (capsular disruption or involvement of perithyroidal tissue), lymph node metastasis, or distant metastasis on ultrasonography or computed tomography; and no evidence of an aggressive subtype of PTC on biopsy. Patients with PTC larger than 2 cm, less than 12 months of follow-up, or inadequate follow-up information were excluded. Data were analyzed in April 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures Long-term progression rate, disease-free survival, and complete tumor disappearance and their associations with patient and tumor characteristics. Disease-free survival was calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to assess risk factors for LTP and complete tumor disappearance. Results The study comprised 1613 patients (mean [SD] age, 43.3 [10.2] years; 1256 women [77.9%]) with 1834 T1N0M0 PTC tumors. During a mean follow-up of 58.5 months (range, 27 to 111 months), LTP was observed in 69 patients (4.3%), including 42 (2.6%) with tumor recurrence and 27 (1.7%) with tumor persistence. Cumulative disease-free survival rates at 1, 3, 5, and 8 years were 98.0%, 96.7%, 96.0%, and 95.7%, respectively. The overall complication rate was 2.0% (32 patients), with 6 (0.4%) major complications. Independent risk factors for LTP included subcapsular tumor location 2 mm or less from the capsule or trachea (hazard ratio [HR], 3.36; 95% CI, 2.02-5.59; P < .001) and multifocal tumors (HR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.30-3.96; P = .004). Furthermore, 1376 patients (85.3%) showed complete tumor disappearance at follow-up ultrasonographic examination. Factors associated with complete tumor disappearance included age 40 years or less (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.70-0.87; P < .001), stage T1a tumors (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.31-0.45; P < .001), and unifocal tumors (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.42-0.60; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance In this cohort study, ultrasonography-guided RFA for T1N0M0 PTC had excellent long-term outcomes. Patients with unifocal T1N0M0 PTC and subcapsular tumor location more than 2 mm from the capsule or trachea may be the best candidates for RFA.