Research on Spatiotemporal Changes and Control Strategy of Carbon Emission in Shenyang

Scientific estimation and monitoring of regional long-term carbon emission change rules are the data support and scientific basis for developing differentiated emission reduction strategies. Based on the estimation data of energy carbon emissions from 2010 to 2021, DMSP/OLS and NPP/VIIRS lighting data, and the ESDA, Kaya identity, and LMDI models, the temporal and spatial changes and driving mechanism of carbon emissions in Shenyang were discussed. The results showed that: (1) During the study period, the carbon emission of energy consumption in Shenyang showed an upward trend, but the growth rate increased first and then decreased, and the carbon peak was not reached; (2) The spatial distribution of carbon emissions showed a radiative pattern decreasing from the center to the periphery; (3) The global Moran’s I of carbon emission is greater than zero, forming a high-high concentration distribution in the central region, low-low concentration distribution in the peripheral region, and low-high concentration distribution in the Yuhong region; (4) Economic development, population size, and energy efficiency are significant carbon-increasing factors, while industrial structure and energy structure factors are significant carbon-reducing factors. The order of driving factors is as follows: industrial structure > economic development > energy efficiency > population size > energy structure.