Scheme simulation and predictive analysis of water environment carrying capacity in Shanxi Province based on system dynamics and DPSIR model

A key influence factor of sustainable regional development is the water environment carrying capacity (WECC), which is a prerequisite for ecological security and harmonious regional development. Utilizing the benefits of the dynamic analysis of system dynamics (SD) and the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework system, we constructed a water environment carrying capacity-system dynamics (WECC-SD) model and evaluation index system for Shanxi Province. Five possible future development schemes were designed to predict the changes in WECC from 2020 to 2030. Further, we analyzed the system coordination with the coupling coordination degree model. The results manifest that the comprehensive ranking of WECC under different schemes is: comprehensive scheme > water environment protection scheme > water conservation scheme > status quo scheme > economic development scheme. The economic development scheme performs the worst in WECC and coupling coordination performance, the water conservation and water environment protection schemes can both improve WECC to varying degrees but promote coordinated system development to a very limited extent, the comprehensive scheme can significantly improve WECC and system coordination and is the best strategy to realize the coordinated and steady development of regional economic activities and the water environment. In future development, economic development should be moderated on the premise that the quality of the water environment will gradually enhance and the consumption of water resources will continue to decline, so that a benign relationship between population – economy – water resources – water environment can be created and a steady increase in the level of coordinated regional development can be promoted. The study reveals complex impact relationships within the WECC system and informs the development of future regional planning and environmental policy.