Impact of countries’ role on trade prices from a nickel chain perspective: Based on complex network and panel regression analysis

Recently the large fluctuation of nickel futures price makes the nickel trade price become the focus of policymakers' attention. Affected by resource endowment and resource demand, the trade role of a country affects its pricing power in the international market. The impact is across the whole industry chain. Using the panel regression model and complex network model, this paper analyses the evolution trend of trade position for countries participating in nickel product trade from 2000 to 2019 from the perspective of the industry chain, and examines the impact of changes in the country's trade role on its trade prices. Finally, the pricing power of typical countries is quantified and visualized. The study found: (i) The trade market of nickel products shows a prosperous trend and the Asian factors play an important role. (ii) The trade role of the country has a significant cross-influence on trade prices in all links of the industrial chain. (iii) The trading role of the state in the upstream nickel ore and the downstream stainless steel affect the trade price of the whole industry chain through the pass-through effect of prices in the industry chain. (iv) China, the United States, India, and the industrialized nations of Europe already have terms of trade that affect prices. This research will help governments understand the role of the country in the trade of nickel products and the impact on market prices. In addition, it also provides theoretical support for policymakers to formulate trade policies and strategies. • Trade of all links on the nickel industry chain presents a prosperous trend. • The Asian factor has played an important trade role in nickel and its product. • The trade role from different links has a cross-influence on trade prices. • China, the United States and India have terms of trade that affect prices. • The industrialized nations of Europe have terms of trade that affect prices.